Following widespread irregularities and denouncements of fraud, final results show that electoral changes disproportionately hurt the leftist FMLN, leaving them with no legislative seats for the first time since the end of the armed conflict.

On February 18, El Salvador’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announced the final results of the legislative elections that were held alongside presidential elections on February 4. For the first time since the end of the civil war, all sixty legislative seats will be held by right-wing parties following major reforms passed by Bukele's party, which were intended to prevent the opposition, especially the left, from regaining electoral ground.

In addition to winning a reported 82.7% of the presidential vote, enabling Nayib Bukele to remain in office for a consecutive presidential term in violation of El Salvador's constitution, his Nuevas Ideas (New Ideas) party will also maintain a supermajority in the upcoming 2024-2027 legislative period, with 54 of the 60 seats. His allies in the National Conciliation Party (PCN) and Christian Democrat Party (PDC) will have two and one seats, respectively. Between the remaining right-wing opposition parties, the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) will hold two and Vamos will hold one. The leftist Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) will have no representation in the Legislative Assembly, despite receiving the third-highest share of votes.

Electoral Reforms Favored Nuevas Ideas

Bukele and his followers have trumpeted his victory - and his supermajority in the legislature - as evidence of a mandate. But, in reality, the breakdown of votes shows more support for opposition parties, especially on the left, than the distribution of seats in the legislature suggests. Though the FMLN was awarded no seats, the party received the third-highest vote count for the legislative elections and second highest in the presidential vote. This discrepancy is a result of massive changes to the electoral system that Bukele’s party implemented over the summer.

The first change intended to help Bukele’s party consolidate control was the reduction of the total number of legislative seats from eighty-four to sixty. But perhaps even more significantly, the process for assigning legislative seats was changed, from the “largest remainder” (or Hare) method, which favors the participation of smaller parties, to the D’Hondt method, which disadvantages smaller parties. Finally, Bukele's party vote to channel all votes from Salvadorans registered to vote abroad, where Bukele enjoys even greater support, to the department of San Salvador, where opposition parties currently have the strongest representation; in the end, these totaled over 214,000 votes, enough to lose the FMLN the seat they would otherwise have won.

The changes appear to have worked as intended, leading to an overrepresentation of Bukele’s Nuevas Ideas party in the upcoming legislative period and a severe underrepresentation of the FMLN and any other progressive opponents. Despite receiving 68% of legislative votes, Nuevas Ideas will be awarded 90% of the seats in the next legislature. The charts below, from Disruptiva, compare the makeup of the new Legislative Assembly (chart 1) with its composition had the seat-assignment formula not been changed (chart 2).

Notably, if the vote count method had not been changed, the FMLN would have won five legislative seats, or 8.3% of the total in the new 60-seat Assembly. As they currently hold four out of eighty-four seats (or 4.8% of all seats), their representation, rather than being erased, would have increased. Had neither the formula nor the size of the legislature changed, the increase for the FMLN would have been greater, from four seats to six.

Voter Turnout

According to the TSE, total turnout was 52.6% of eligible voters; this is a slight increase from the previous presidential election in 2019 (51.9%), though far from a massive turnout. Salvadoran popular movement organizations have pointed out that though Bukele garnered 82.7% of presidential ballots cast, in total he received less than half (43.5%) of all potential votes, casting doubt on the narrative that Bukele enjoys overwhelming support from the entire population. The results also show less support for his party than for him; Nuevas Ideas received half a million fewer legislative votes than he won in the presidential race, representing 35.4% of eligible voters’ support, though NI will hold 90% of legislative seats beginning on May 1.

Problems with Vote Count

After a total collapse of the system designed to tally and transmit legislative votes on the night of the election, the extended recount process was rife with signs of fraud. Among other irregularities, ballots that appeared to have never been folded (the only way to get them into the voting box) and ballots marked with pens whose ink bled through the ballots, as opposed to the crayons issued by the TSE, were included in the final count. Some voting recount tables recorded more marked ballots than voters, and some ballot boxes showed signs of having been opened and resealed somewhere along their journey from voting centers to the recount. The chain of custody for all of San Salvador’s ballots was broken for 36 hours, and media outlets tracked them down in private and military-owned storage spaces.

These anomalies, coupled with intimidation by government officials and Nuevas Ideas representatives (sometimes one and the same, which is prohibited by law), led all of the opposition parties to file petitions with the TSE calling for the annulment of the legislative election results. A joint petition filed by ARENA, Vamos, and Nuestro Tiempo, which called on the TSE to repeat the elections, was denied on February 21, with four of five TSE magistrates ruling that the petition was delivered outside of the permitted 24-hour window following the election, even though it came within 24 hours of the TSE’s announcing of the election results.

The FMLN’s petition to nullify the results on account of manipulation in each phase of the election was declared inadmissible the following day, in a vote supported by the same four TSE magistrates. In presenting the petition, FMLN legislative candidate (and current representative to the Central American Parliament) Karina Sosa declared that “the whole [electoral] process has been flawed.” 

Lack of International Response

Despite widespread condemnation from all opposition sectors within El Salvador, Bukele’s myriad attacks on democracy and on the Constitution before, during and after the election were largely met with silence (or approval) by international officials. A high-ranking State Department official celebrated his “excellent meeting” the day before Bukele officially submitted his unconstitutional reelection candidacy to the TSE. Many governments from around the world, including Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, though notably not all, congratulated Bukele after his self-proclaimed victory, that is, days before results were finalized. International refusal to confront Bukele’s authoritarian actions may have contributed to his party’s brazen approach to manipulating the election results, and it has paid off for his Nuevas Ideas party.

Released on February 21, the Organization of American States’ second preliminary report on the election references instances of irregularities and “a dominant and intimidating attitude” by the Nuevas Ideas party. While the report echos many of the irregularities that were widely denounced by civil society groups and opposition parties and calls on the Salvadoran government to improve the technical aspects of the electoral process, it leaves out many documented examples of fraud and concludes by rubber stamping the results, stating that, “the Mission has no doubts about the results delivered by the electoral authority.”

March elections and social movement organizing

Amidst formal calls from all opposition parties to annul the February elections and widespread mistrust of the country’s electoral authorities, the country is also preparing to hold municipal and Central American Parliament (PARLACEN) elections on March 3. The March elections will take place amidst a new electoral landscape in which the Bukele government reduced the number of municipalities from 262 to 44. While opposition parties are still campaigning for these elections, a grassroots leftist coalition, the Popular Resistance and Rebellion Bloc (BRP), has called on them to withdraw, citing the government’s failure to meet basic democratic conditions, as well as the usurpation of the role of the TSE as the highest electoral authority by the governing party.

The BRP has maintained that free and fair elections cannot be held under a State of Exception, with constitutional rights having been suspended for nearly two years, especially when the President and Vice President are running for unconstitutional reelection. Their call to the population, especially after progressive forces failed to embrace their proposal to form a frente amplio, or broad front, to confront Bukele, has been to strengthen the social movements.

If the first five years of Bukele’s presidency was any indication, this approach will take on even greater significance during the upcoming presidential period. Attacks against unions, land defenders, and marginalized communities show no sign of slowing down, with the judiciary, police, armed forces, and all state institutions beholden to Bukele and his oligarchy-aligned clan. Feminist and LGBTI+ groups, understanding the stakes of February’s elections, organized the first protest rejecting the Bukele’s reelection. They are also organizing a march for International Women’s Day on March 8, the first major call to action following the election season. With the left excluded from the electoral arena for the first time since the country’s civil war, Salvadoran social movements are preparing to lead the resistance against Bukele, despite a difficult road ahead.